At the start of every season, every hockey fan thinks that maybe, just maybe their team has got a chance to raise Lord Stanley pail when it is all said and done. 

When the playoffs roll around, this feeling and sense of hope is inestisified. Why? Because usually there is always an upset or two where a team that finished a significant amount of points from the team they will meet in the first round, but they will actually do something marvelous – and send them packing. 

This year’s playoff race is no different. There are some teams ripe for the p-lucking come the first round and some that look to be lying in the weeds. Going into a hockey pool, you need to be conscious of a potential first round upset. It can win or lose you your pool. Here is our take:

St. Louis Blues: Not that we think that they are guaranteed to crash and burn in the first round again – but if the Blues end up facing a team like the Sharks or Oilers – it could happen...again. Since the acquisition of Tkachuk two weeks ago, St. Louis has looked …well…brutal. It's not like that aren't winning, but they aren't winning with the conviction they were earlier in the season. At the beginning of the season, they looked almost unbeatable. They had a well-rounded offense, awesome defense and very steady if not unspectacular goaltending from Roman Turek and Brent Johnson. However, since team captain, Chris Pronger has been gone, the Blues look…disjointed. Why? Well, let’s see. 1) Part of their current funk can be attributed to the team’s reaction to the arrival of the self-centered Tkachuk, and a bit of an adjustment is needed. The Blues are a very close-knit squad and the arrival of a player with an entirely different agenda than the rest of the team may be difficult for some players to handle. #2) The loss of Chris Pronger cannot be over-stated. When you lose a perennial Norris trophy candidate that plays almost 30 minutes per game for you, well... there is bound to be a dip in the team’s success (add to that Al MacInnis' missing more than a month with an eye injury and the Blues' defense has been in a shambles). #3) The Lindros affair. Almost enough said there, but the rumoured deal for Pierre Turgeon could not have had a positive impact on the team or Turgeon. #4) Exorcizing the demons. It almost appears to us that the Blues are beginning to believe some of the media hype around this year’s team. Many pundits are drawing similarity to last year's team, and it looks like the Blues are beginning to believe that they could get bounced in the first round again. Confidence is an asset when you have it, and as elusive as a cursing jar in a convent when you don’t. We think the Blues will pull it together before the playoffs. But there is the potential that if they fall flat in one of their first two games…well…is it hot in here?

Colorado Avalanche: Yes, we did mean the Colorado Avalanche. Why you ask? Well, let’s break this down. While the ‘Lanche have five special forwards (Sakic, Forsberg, Tanguay, Hejduk, and Drury) to form the best two lines in hockey, after that, well…we kind of think that they may not be a deep as say, Dallas or Detroit. And granted, their defense is awesome with Blake, Bourque, Adam Foote, and Martin Skoulla, a closer examination, would indicate there are weak links in the armour. #1) you must remember that Blake is still hurt with a knee injury and while he's hoping to be ready for the first round, he may be rushing it a bit. Bourque is 40 years old, and Foote is just now back from injury that forced him to miss two months. #2) Patrick Roy has been rather ordinary by his standards. He will really need to pick it up for the Avs to be successful. #3) Preparedness – Colorado has looked good – but not awesome for a while now. Yeah they are kind of on cruise control, but at a time when Detroit and Dallas are both turning it up a few notches in prep for the playoffs, Colorado , with their won veteran team, has not matched those two teams intensity and desire. They need to be careful, because if they don’t …they could be gone, long before poolies that go heavy in the Avs are done bragging about their team in this year’s pool.

Along with a couple of teams to be leery of in the first round jinx, we also wanted to come up with a couple of sleeper teams.

Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers come into the playoff battle, relatively healthy, and playing some very good hockey. Doug Weight looks awesome. Surprising contributions from Sergei Zoltok, Daniel Cleary and the continued development of Mike Comrie have the offense clicking. Back on the blue line, Eric Brewer and Jason Smith have been huge, and Tom Poti finally looks like he is playing his way out of a season long funk. But, the Oil will only go as far as Tommy Salo takes them. Salo has been tremendous and in a perfect world, would get some consideration for the Hart trophy – he has been that good. He’s played an enormous number of minutes, has great stats and just seems to take the success all in stride. If the Oilers can keep their good play going, they could be a very scary team to play in the first round – just ask the Dallas Stars.

Dallas Stars: Tough to think that a team that wins its division is a sleeper, but the Dallas Stars have quietly cranked up their play – and the proof is in the pudding. Winners of nine of their last ten games, the Stars have a nice blend of still youthful energy and wily veteran savvy. Belfour – besides being the flakiest tender this side of the Kingston Penal league – is a proven playoff performer. He and Stars head coach, Ken Hitchcock do not like each other at all – but GM Bob Gainey has made it very clear that Hitchcock is the boss, and that the two of them do not have to like each other, but they do have to respect one another. Dallas’ one main weakness remains its lack of team speed. But Gainey is banking on the veteran smarts and experience to make up for that. We think the Stars may surprise a lot of pundits.

Next week – we wander over the East. See you then.