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In our
latest top ten list, we looked at guys that we think are risky picks to
repeat their performances of last year and that based on their last
season’s stats will go higher than where they should. This doesn’t mean
that these guys won’t have solid seasons, but it does mean you’ll need to
ensure you don’t over-value them and pay too much, while they leave you
wanting more. That said, here we go…
| 1. |
Michael
Nylander – (LW/C) –
Chicago
Blackhawks
Seems
like Nylander has been playing in the league forever…and frankly
that’s not that far off the mark. After 8 seasons in the league,
Nylander has had two solid back-to-back seasons of 24 and 25 goals
respectively. So
why
is he here? There is no argument about Nylander's offensive ability.
He kind of reminds us of Andrew Cassels at times. The problem has been
his durability and his style of play. He has been known as an
injury-plagued guy, and he is not exactly one who likes it when the
going gets physical. Nylander has benefited from a serious lack of
depth in Chicago and from feeding the puck to offensive spitfire Steve
Sullivan. As the Hawks develop some of their young talent, the likely
guy to get his minutes reduced is Nylander. We think it’ll be tough
for him to get to 60 points again this season. |
| 2. |
Espen
Knutsen
– (C) –
Columbus
Blue Jackets
Last
year Mr. Knutsen had many hockey poolies asking the question, Espen
who? His first full season in the NHL saw the
Norwegian
born Knutsen finish with 52 points in 66 games. Many of those came on
helpers to last year’s
comeback
player of the year candidate, Geoff Sanderson, and his 30 goals. While
Espen is a good playmaker, his second time ‘round the NHL won’t be
nearly as good as the first as he will no longer surprise defensemen.
Same goes for Sanderson, as teams look at shutting down these two
players to defeat the Blue Jackets. He may exceed 60 points but he
will have to stay healthy and work even harder than he did last year.
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| 3. |
Brendan
Shanahan
– (rw) – Detroit Red Wings
Make no
mistake: Shanahan has and will always be one of our favorite NHL
players. Gritty and strong with a hard shot, Shanahan is an excellent
hockey player. But… recent developments should have you convinced that
he will have to
work
much harder to see 30 goals again. Last year’s playoffs were a
nightmare for Shanahan – as coach Bowman actually benched this
pit-bull. With Luc Robitaille and Brett Hull in town, it doesn’t take
Nostradamus to see that Shanahan may not receive the same quality
ice-time and minutes that he did in the past. Also remember that this
will be his 15th season in the NHL, and as hard as it is to
say, this is a recipe for a drop off in production. If he plays with
Stevie “Y”, Shanahan should get his 30+ goals again. If he doesn’t, he
could be in for a rough season – and you will see us revising our
predictions at mid-season. |
| 4. |
Rob
Niedermayer
– (c) –
Calgary
Flames
At
the tender age of 26, it’s hard to think that a guy could be in need
of a second chance, but face it… Niedermayer is in need of a big year.
It’s kind of a put up or shut-up year for him and playing with the
Flames will make putting
up
that more difficult. You’ll remember that in his 2nd year
in the NHL he had 26 goals and 61 points, and looked
to
be on his way to being the next Doug Gilmour. But something went very
wrong. Injuries took their toll: knee, back and even worse – a series
of concussions. Niedermayer has not been the same since. New GM Craig
Button sent unhappy Valerie Bure (and his 30 goal potential) to
Florida to get Niedermayer (and his 30 points) in the hope the change
of scenery will allow him to blossom. This could be a fatal mistake
for Mr. Button. If he stays relatively healthy, the best Niedermayer
can hope for is a season with points in the low 40s. |
| 5. |
Claude
Lemieux
– (lw) – Phoenix Coyotes
In
one of the stranger moves not made this year, Wayne Gretzky and
company did not trade Lemieux in their house cleaning of
over-rated,
over-paid talent. Our theory? Someone had to be over 30 on this new
look ‘Yotes squad! Lemieux
has
never been a regular season stud – but if we were prepping for the
playoffs, Lemieux would definitely be on our list of go-to-guys. It’s
going to be a lean year in the desert, and Lemieux will struggle to
reach 20 goals and 45 points unless he’s traded to a contending team…
early. |
| 6. |
Dave
Andreychuk
– (rw) – Tampa Bay Lightning
Andreychuk and Oilers’ defensemen Tom Poti likely have the longest
hockey sticks in the NHL – and over the years Andreychuk
has
used it well. But at 38, father time is firmly in Andreychuk’s
rear-view mirror. Still blessed with soft hands, Andreychuk had 20
goals last year in Buffalo. But on a quick Lightning squad, Andreychuk
simply
won’t be able to keep up with the play. He’ll see some PP time, as he
still can knock them home from 10 feet with the best of them. But
Andreychuk’s contributions to the Lightning will be felt more in the
locker room than on the ice. 11 goals and 25 points is our prediction. |
| 7. |
Martin
Gelinas
– (lw) – Carolina Hurricanes
Gelinas
is, flat out, a warrior. With a face that looks like he got caught in
a golfers stampede, Gelinas continues to throw his body around the ice
with reckless abandon. Trouble is, he is beginning to show the wear
and tear of all that
fearlessness.
A bona fide sniper out of junior, Gelinas never gained the confidence
and consistency to
make
him the goal scoring threat his skills warranted. As a result, he
quickly turned himself into a speedy
agitator
with the
heart of a lion in a tabby cat’s body. Gelinas hit for 23 goals last
season, but we think it will be hard for him to repeat those numbers –
particularly if the younger ‘Canes continue to develop (Willis,
Vasicek and O’Neill). If they do, Gelinas could be back in the third
line role again, and his numbers will reflect that. He won’t hit 20
goals and he’ll struggle to get close to 40 points. |
| 8. |
Ray
Ferraro
– (c) –
Atlanta
Thrashers
If you
were the only one on the planet (despite Ray’s mom) who thought that
at the age of 36 he’d hit for 29 goals and a 76 point season…well…you
should be buying lottery tickets. Ferraro showed signs of his former
self, and played with a passion for the game that we wish more NHL’ers
did. Ferraro was getting points from everywhere – off of
opponents
skates, team-mates butts, funky hops off of boards – so many that we
thought he had the Midas
touch.
In what will be his swan-song season, the classy former Trail
Smoke-eater will not duplicate last season numbers. Gone are linemates
Brunette and Audette – two thirds of what was for a while the best
line in the NHL. In are a whole bunch of high-potential youngsters. If
he plays with two of Kovalchuk, Heatley or Kallio, he has a shot at 60
points. If he gets pushed to the 2nd or 3rd line
he will be lucky to reach 15 goals and 40 points. Watch closely what
happens in the last few games of the pre-season. |
| 9. |
Mark
Messier
– (c) –
New York
Rangers
Placing
the “Moose’s” name on this list was hard for us to do, for if Gelinas
is a warrior, Messier is the Ultimate Warrior. Still the best leader
in all of professional sports, Messier’s on-ice impact is diminishing
faster than his hairline. Messier managed to bag 24 goals last year –
but 12 of those were on the PP and he was a brutal -25. The signing of
Eric Lindros, the need to play youngsters like Mike York and Manny
Malhotra and the fact that
Messier
will turn 41 before the All-Star break, are all signs pointing to a
significant drop in production. The Moose will still see PP time, but
his increasingly glaring defensive lapses make him a liability at even
strength. 18 goals and 52 points are the maximums we forecast. |
| 10. |
Alexander
Mogilny
– (rw) – Toronto Maple Leafs
This
signing by GM/Coach Pat Quinn still has us scratchin’ our heads. It
was Quinn at the helm of the Vancouver Canucks that made the deal to
acquire Mogilny back in 1995. And it was Quinn that suffered as
Mogilny picked and chose his years with the Canucks (his contract
ones) to actually display his abundance of offensive talent. Still one
of the best pure snipers in the NHL, Mogilny was true to that form
last year and tallied 43 goals. The
Maple
Leafs signed him for big $$, and that means the odds that Alex the
Great will now revert back to Alex the Just O.K. are very high – do
not over-value him. If you pick him thinking he’s got another 40 goal
performance in him – you could be sorry. If he gets 35 goals and 75
points we will be very pleasantly surprised. |
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for more help in your draft? Check out the Puckjunkie.com
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